The “Who Knows?” point in the election cycle

by | Nov 29, 2021 | coronavirus, Editor's Blog | 8 comments

For the past few months, Republicans have been giddy over Biden’s falling approving ratings. Bad headlines that began with an August COVID spike and the Afghan withdrawal continued with rising gas prices and inflation. The GOP could taste the defeat they believe is coming next November. Pundits are already asking how bad it’s going to be. 

But politics isn’t linear. What’s happening today doesn’t always continue until an election changes the public’s mood. In fact, news on the economic front often isn’t reflected in public sentiment for months. And that may change Democrats’ fortunes considerably. 

Republicans are clearly cheering for inflation. They want to justify their warnings about the COVID stimulus programs and they want higher prices to drive a wedge between voters and Democrats. Maybe they will get their wish, but I’m not so sure. 

Last week, Biden announced he’s tapping into strategic oil reserves. Several headlines ominously warned that the results won’t be felt for months and that higher heating bills this winter may be inevitable. While higher heating bills this winter may suck, falling gas prices this spring may prove to be a boon. From a political standpoint, Democrats would rather see cheaper oil in the run up to midterms than cheaper oil right now. 

The new COVID variant also seems to be threatening Biden. Another spike that leads to school shutdowns and more mask mandates could leave a pandemic weary public angry at the party in power. However, early statistics indicate that most hospitalizations in South Africa are among the unvaccinated, much like the Delta variant. A smaller spike that lasts less time and largely affects only those listening to right wing propaganda or left-wing anti-vaxxer nonsense could actually help Biden. The public might give him credit for getting the country back to normal. It’s all about managing expectations. If the public fears a large spike that never happens because of the successful vaccine program, then maybe the president gets credit instead of blame. 

Finally, the economic news is actually very good despite polls that show people are not optimistic. If the low unemployment numbers keep rolling in and wages continue to grow, inflation worries may prove to be overblown. The pessimism today may turn out to be forgotten by next fall. 

As I’ve said before, I don’t believe Democrats can hold the House because of redistricting. I do believe they can hold the Senate if the economy holds, COVID is less of a worry, and we stay out of international conflicts. A lot could also happen over the next 11 months that changes the political environment. So, really, we’re at a “Who knows?” point in the election cycle. I suspect Biden’s numbers will get considerably better over the next few months, but that doesn’t mean they won’t get worse again before the midterm election.

8 Comments

  1. Rick Gunter

    These Republicans are a loathsome lot. They are throwing stones from glass houses. They and their cult leader did nothing to lessen the impact of COViD. I repeat: They did nothing to help. They did everything, and still are, to worsen its impact. Some of their Know-Nothing governors are paying people not to get vaccinated! Jim Jones must be smiling! This is a suicide watch.

    The Republicans, even before Donald the Strange, tanked the economy back in 2008.

    During their cult leader’s term, they gave their very wealthy donors tax cuts on the public’s credit card. We are beginning to pay that bill. Yet these fools tell their crazy base that Biden’s spending programs are driving inflation. Biden’s spending programs are paid for by tiny tax hikes on the very wealthy. The Party of Trump blames supply shortages on Biden. Again, they did nothing to combat COVID. They have no moral standing to criticize any Democratic president for the next generation, given the fact they enabled their cult leader, who should be indicted for manslaughter because of the nearly 800,000 COVID deaths, and did not say one critical word about one egregious outrage after another.

    Yes, I was raised a Democrat in a place that even in the 1950s was a Republican stronghold (Mitchell County, NC). But those Republicans were good and decent people. They were my friends. I loved them. We just disagreed on politics. Those who call themselves Republicans today are anything but brethren in the Party of Lincoln. They are horrible human beings with whom it is folly to contend. No other judgment can be made. For if they did not support the crazies and intolerance and the racism, those snakes would crawl back into darkness.
    How any rational and decent American could vote for these people for any office from the outhouse to White House is the mystery of my life.

    What is wrong with about half the country? We are in the process of losing our democracy in large part because too many of us think politics and life are “normal.” These are anything but normal times. The only rules got knocked aside by radical Republicans who are long on performance and very short on governance

  2. Phoenix

    another view

  3. cocodog

    If Biden continues to address the needs of this country with reasonable measures designed to lower inflation, eradicate this COVID. when lots of folks do not take it seriously preferring to refuse to be part of the solution by getting the vaccinations and booster when applicable plus masking up in enclosed public places his polling will suffer. Unemployment is currently at its lowest in the last 50 years, But COVID is still a major threat. It seems some folks believe the ravings of some uneducated, profit driven talking head over at Fox, rather than their physician and common sense this disease will continue to mutate, becoming stronger and more resistant to vaccinations and treatment. It is clearly time for some Republicans to grow up and stop down grading science and common sense just to win an election

    • Phoenix

      Just to add an alternative view. Not an argument. No need to reply.

      ——(Mine)

      If Biden continues to address the needs of this country with reasonable measures designed to lower inflation —(Further large spending bills such as BBB is definitely not going to help in this regard.)

      …..eradicate this COVID. when lots of folks do not take it seriously preferring to refuse to be part of the solution by getting the vaccinations and booster when applicable plus masking up in enclosed public places his polling will suffer. —(Unfortunately The shots are not working. Fauci himself states they will not prevent infection or spread, hospitalization or even death So they are more akin to a talisman at this point so Biden will get no help from this, and all the mandates really hurt him. Its not clear that shots are any kind of solution at all to ending anything, but easily seen as a vehicle to keep things going and exert more control.)

      Unemployment is currently at its lowest in the last 50 years. —(Biden will get no boost from this because its simply people going back to the jobs they had before they were sent away with a lock downs etc that did not work.)

      But COVID is still a major threat. —(Debatable really at this point, Two years in and we aren’t really much better, its likely we are just going to have to simply get on living with it, and it will be just one of many risks we face everyday and it is is 99.9% survivable after all)

      It seems some folks believe the ravings of some uneducated, profit driven talking head over at Fox,—( or Fauci or some other dunder head take your pick there are plenty…lol)

      …rather than their physician and common sense.—-(Opinions of doctors are not monolithic so not everyone is following what you would consider “common sense” they are however following doctors orders. So what do you do with that? Best advice is don’t judge and MYOB)

      ….this disease will continue to mutate, —(As it will naturally, regardless)

      ……becoming stronger —-( Doubtful as that is not the natural evolution of viruses and definitely not that of corona viruses as the omicron variant is showing right now. )

      …It is clearly time for some Republicans to grow up and stop down grading science and common sense just to win an election—( Science is ever changing and whatever think we “know” is constantly tested and challenged that’s the point. Its not religion.Some could say The Democrats are using it as well. So who is right? Who knows.)

      • cocodog

        Anthony Fauci has never made a public or private statement that I am aware that would imply or support the notion vaccinations don’t work. In fact, he has encouraged vaccinations and boosters and to protect yourself and others when in public by wearing a mask. Fauci is a reputable, licensed physician. It would be shameful and stupid for man of his background and achievements to lie and mislead folks on a national level.

        It took me some time to get through your posting as your below 4th grade level writhing skills made it difficult. But after 11 Grammatical errors and 4 misspelled words, I think I got it! Moreover, if you are going to quote me, and others have the academic courtesy to use quotation marks. (They look like this ” “) !

        Here is a suggestion, if your goal is pushing misinformation and misleading concepts, work on your vocabulary skills (that means learn new words), invest in a word processor program, these will help you, if you plan to continue in this business of being an amateur internet troll! Currently most folks read your stuff and LOL. Your ability to express yourself in concise thoughts needs improvement . Folks do not take you seriously.

      • Danny Lineberger

        Dr. Fauci has never said that the vaccines do not work. Quite the contrary. Dr. Fauci has consistently maintained that the vaccines are effective. Information to the contrary is at least partially the result of the continued disinformation that Alex Jones is spreading, particularly on his November 14 video. Some of you may be aware that this same Alex Jones has been found liable for disinformation against the families of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting because he said the shooting was a hoax. Unfortunately, those who spread this type of disinformation know that quite a few conservatives are so gullible that they will believe anything as long as it fits into their preconceived prejudices. They are being taken hook, line, and sinker while their leaders sit back and laugh at them.

        • cocodog

          When his majesty “Donald the Orange” was running this site had its share of troll bots. Some of them were quite good, elegant, and well versed on pending cases hearing political matters like gerrymandering etc. even though this troll was extremely caustic at times, he was entertaining. This guy is either a bargain basement troll or a person who tries to be something other than himself. I particularly found his paper grading phase humorous. I seriously doubt anything he posts is going to be regarded as earth shaking.
          Jones was a disgrace and what he published about Sandy Hook went well beyond common human decency and was truly intentional infliction of pain on those family members. We do not need this type of nonsense in the world.

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