Record snow? Forecasters differ on what's coming to the Asheville area

ASHEVILLE — Meteorologist Hunter Ward was feeling cautious.

On Wednesday, he took a break from work — he's a builder by trade — to talk about the many forecast models ahead of this weekend's probable winter weather event.

He's not ready to forecast a snowfall total, or say where exactly the majority of the moisture will fall. But he's happy to say what some of the global forecast models are calling for the area: 

"Most global models are showing huge accumulations, some giving us over a foot, and some have given us 19-24 inches. But those are just models — so take it with a grain of salt."

If those models were accurate, that would mean this weekend's snow could surpass the local record set in 1993, when a blizzard left 18 inches of snow in Buncombe County, with snowfall totals ranging from a foot and a half to about 2 feet elsewhere in Western North Carolina.

►Read more:Winter is coming: December snowstorms in Asheville can be unpredictable, pack a wallop

Ward, who has a certificate in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State, is not interested in sensationalism. "I'm mainly concerned with other people's safety and security."

But his reputation for accuracy has helped his star rise in the forecasting community, with a new app for Android and another coming for Apple, a website and nearly 22,000 followers on Facebook. 

He won't risk disappointing his followers by projecting snowfall totals until at least Thursday, he said.

Storm could bring ice

Ward would say conditions are supportive of an icy mix in areas farther southwest of Asheville. 

Even Asheville could see some ice and sleet. But European ensemble forecast models, he said, are calling for snow. And lots of it. 

►Read more:Weather according to Ward: With Facebook, young meteorologist takes WNC by storm

"This morning, I was looking and they averaged 12 inches of snow (for the Asheville area). This is something that we really have to watch."

See a European 7-day model for Asheville-area weather here.

Prepare for wet snow

It's also possible the precipitation could fall as sleet, Ward warned, and that snow lovers could end up disappointed. But he said it's largely people in the foothills who might see grass this weekend instead of winter white. 

Meanwhile, he urged people in the Asheville area to prepare for a potentially wet snow.

"Heavy, wet snow sticks to a lot of things. It's going to be beautiful, but trees on power lines could cause lots of problems throughout the area."

Ward advised gathering food, firewood and having water on hand. Use kerosene heaters with caution. 

The storm also has the potential to strengthen, and will likely stick around through Monday night, releasing more precipitation over the area after a calm period.

"Models have a frozen column in place when a strong system moves in, and they are spitting at large snowfall totals," Ward concluded on his website. 

What does the National Weather Service say?

Scott Krentz, a meteorologist with the Greer-based office of the National Weather Service, echoed Ward's assertion that this weather pattern will stick around for some time. 

"This could be a 2-and-a-half, 3-day event," he said.

The NWS snowfall forecast is far more conservative, with the potential for 3-6 inches in the valleys, maybe more, maybe less, he said. 

Saturday and Sunday night are likely to see ice accumulations of 1-2 tenths of an inch.

The National Weather Service models have precipitation moving in Saturday around noon, a bit later than earlier predictions. That means the roads shouldn't be too bad for last-minute, Saturday-morning preparations, Krentz advised.

Precipitation should start as light snow around Buncombe County and the Asheville area, transitioning to a wintry mix around midnight.

"We're seeing mostly a freezing rain scenario overnight, with snow and sleet mixed in, and it should stay that way until Sunday afternoon," he said. 

Precipitation should fall mainly as snow later Sunday, then continue as snow through Monday mid-afternoon, and then again moving into wintry mix territory. 

"This system is not going to get out of here until early Tuesday morning," he said. 

The potential for icy roads will remain throughout the weekend and into Tuesday morning, so prepare for travel impacts. 

This is a long, slow storm

"This (storm) is coming from the worst direction, from west to east," Krentz said.

The weather system is elongated, he said. "And once it gets to the coast, it swings, pivots, and stays in the same spot before moving northeast. It's going to take its time before it pushes off the Atlantic coast."

Krentz suspects the likelihood of precipitation falling as sleet and freezing rain will keep snowfall totals lower than Ward and other forecasters have predicted.

But have no fear snow lovers: Krentz is confident we'll see measurable snowfall by Monday morning. 

Temperatures stay below freezing for most of the weekend, but not far below, which means snow will be heavy and wet.

Krentz also offered this nugget of wisdom for the winter season which, believe it or not, is still a couple of weeks away: while models show there's an equal chance temperatures will be colder than normal, normal, or warmer than normal, a wet winter is likely.

Buckle up, Asheville. 

What other forecasters say:

►Ray's Weather says this is likely to be the most significant storm we've seen in over a decade.

►WLOS is calling for "significant" snow and sleet accumulations.

►Here's a collection of forecast models via AshevilleWX.