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Unaffiliated voters account for almost half of Republican ballots cast so far in NC 11


MAY 9, 2022 - The May 17 primary is just more than a week away and already voters have shown out in droves -- particularly unaffiliated voters. (Photo credit: WLOS staff)
MAY 9, 2022 - The May 17 primary is just more than a week away and already voters have shown out in droves -- particularly unaffiliated voters. (Photo credit: WLOS staff)
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The May 17 primary is just more than a week away and already voters have shown out in droves -- particularly unaffiliated voters. They now make up the largest group of voters in North Carolina and nearly half -- about 42% of the Republican ballots cast so far -- in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District.

"That is about twice what other districts are. I mean, this is a huge number. I've never seen anything like it," said Dr. Chris Cooper, Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs and director of the Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University.

Cooper said, across North Carolina, just about 33% of the voters who've cast Republican ballots so far were unaffiliated. Cooper added, he doesn't think many of the unaffiliateds voting GOP in NC 11 are casting ballots for the embattled Congressional incumbent who continues to grab headlines each week.

"I think most people do, and I do, too, that this is not good news for Madison Cawthorn. That does not mean that he's going to lose, but it does look like the traditional Republican voters who voted for him last time are a smaller share of the electorate this time," he said.

UNAFFILIATED VOTERS NOW OUTNUMBER REGISTERED REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS IN NORTH CAROLINA

If there's a primary runoff -- which we could see if any candidate fails to get 30% of the vote plus one -- the unaffiliated people who voted Republican will have do so again. Time will tell, though, if that's the route they'll choose come November.

"My guess is no, certainly not all of them and maybe not even the majority of them. We know there are some people, just anecdotally, you talk to them, some of them are going to the Republican primary to vote against Cawthorn, frankly, and so, in the general election, they might do something very different," Cooper said.

Just about 27,000 ballots have been accepted so far in NC 11 -- the highest of any Congressional district in the state. About 16,000 of those are Republican ballots, according to Cooper's analysis.

UNAFFILIATED VOTERS NOW NC'S LARGEST GROUP, BUT INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES FAR FROM SHOO-INS

As far as Democratic turnout in NC 11, Cooper said Buncombe County makes up 56% of the Democratic ballots that have been accepted so far in Western North Carolina, while just 23% of the accepted Republican ballots have come from Buncombe County.

"I think what it means is that Buncombe County is becoming an even larger part of the Democratic primary electorate. Most people believe that's a good sign for Jasmine Beach-Ferrara. We'll see if that actually comes to pass," Cooper said.

Overall, the heightened political activism right now is evident across the state, and especially in the mountains.

We're eight days from the primary and outpacing the turnout we'd seen at this point four years ago. We're not beating turnout two years ago, though. Of course, more people voted early then because of COVID-19.

"NC 11 folks are turning out more than they did in 2018, not quite as much as they did in 2020, and more than they are in the rest of the state," Cooper said.

But Cooper cautioned that what looks like great turnout now could end up being average if people don't show up to the polls on May 17.

"This is far from over, and there's a lot of things we still need to learn," Cooper said.

THOUSANDS IN NC CAST THEIR BALLOTS DURING FIRST FEW DAYS OF IN-PERSON, EARLY VOTING

Cooper said he's encouraged to see the increasing interest in civic engagement this election, especially since it's presidential election years that often bring people to the polls more. He said he'd love to see more interest in races for state and local government, though.

"I think that's a good thing for democracy, generally speaking. What I'd love to see is more people running for offices lower than Congress. So, we have a really crowded field on the Republican side and the Democratic side for NC 11. But you look around at some of our state legislative races. Many of them don't have any competitors at all in the primaries," he said.

While overall turnout is up, Cooper said same-day voter registration is not. He said we're barely above 2018's numbers for same-day registration, which he expected to be higher, since he believes the rise of unaffiliated voters is largely fueled by new voters and people who've just moved to North Carolina.

Important dates to remember:

  • Deadline to request absentee ballot: 5 p.m. May 10.
  • Deadline to return absentee ballot in person: 5 p.m. May 17.
  • Deadline to return absentee ballot by mail: must be postmarked by May 17 and arrive by May 20.
  • Early voting ends at 3 p.m. May 14.

Click here to view voter turnout statistics from the N.C. State Board of Elections.

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