Losing numbers, gaining voters

by | Aug 24, 2016 | Editor's Blog, NC Politics, North Carolina | 5 comments

Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer does a great job of tracking and analyzing voter registration trends in the state. Today, he has a post that compares the registration make up of people who registered before 2012 to those who registered after 2012. It tells a lot about where North Carolina is heading. It also reveals a bit about where we’ve been.

Bitzer notes that millennials make up a solid majority of the people who have registered since 2013 and that they are registering unaffiliated at a much higher rate than their elders. In the state overall, Democrats are losing people while Republicans are holding relatively steady. Unaffiliated voters are the fastest growing segment.

The trend is a bit deceiving. The decrease in Democratic voters has been going on for fifty years. It’s more the result of the end of the one-party South than an ideological shift. In fact, the shift favors Democrats. Those millennial unaffiliated voters might not have any party loyalty, but they hold progressive values. And they are a large part of turning North Carolina blue.

Throughout rural North Carolina, there are registered Democrats who haven’t voted for the Democratic ticket, especially in federal races, for decades. They originally registered Democrat because most races were determined in the Democratic primary. They were called Reagan Democrats or Jessecrats and they’re a dying breed.

After the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965, the GOP invited the old segregationist Democrats into their party. Some of those people registered as unaffiliated as they transitioned to Republican. For years, unaffiliated registration was growing steadily and most were voting Republican.

Not any more. As those Jessecrats die off, they’re being replaced by millennials and an increase in Hispanic voters who more often support Democrats, even if they don’t register that way. The millennials may be less ideological but they are far more open minded than the voters they’re replacing. They don’t care about people’s sexual orientation but they do care that people are being treated unfairly. They strongly support Democrats on social issues and the rhetoric of politicians like Donald Trump and Pat McCrory are driving them away from the GOP.

The fastest growing segment of the electorate may be unaffiliated, but they are also more progressive. They’re shifting North Carolina blue even if the Democratic registration is falling. In contrast, Republican registration may be stable, but the party’s insistence on defining itself on issues like HB2 is alienating the people who will determine the future of North Carolina.

5 Comments

  1. Ebrun

    Latest survey of unaffiliated voters in NC showed them supporting Trump over Clinton 43 to 35 percent.

  2. wafranklin

    These figures have been blindingly apparent to those who would see for a long, long, long time. Except the
    NC Democratic Party which has ignored the drain to the Unaffiliated for 20 years and growing. Anything else said here was redundant and immaterial, if the NCDP is never going to look to understand the losses of the past 25-35 years, due mainly to their absolute and gross collective incompetence, due in part to the continued subjugation of the Party to some old Dems who will not let go of the tiller, like a governor for life. The absolute lack of long term planning in NCDP is criminal, but all the boys and girls are out for themselves and devil take the hindmost. Wonder when some adults will finally get the stage.

    • Edison Carter

      Exactly. I couldn’t agree more with your comment: You beat me to it.

  3. Kick Butt

    I’m almost a yellow dog. I changed my registration to Unaffiliated a couple of years ago since I live in a Charlotte suburb and districts (Council, County Commission, State House, State Senate and Congress) that is overwhelmingly Republican. On two occasions I chose to vote in the Republican primary in order to vote for “the best of the worst.” There was no meaningful Democratic primary race requiring my participation as Democrat. Thus, “unaffiliated” is a safe harbor for a lot of different folks for a lot of different reasons.

    • Eva Lightner

      I totally agree! Right now, I just don’t see anyone in either party who is putting the needs of the people over the wants of the party.

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!